Two State Solution Not Dead

Like vultures over the dead carcass of the Palestinian state, all parties seem to be jostling for position, from the EU to the US to Israel to Hamas to Fatah, everyone seems to be staking out their territory both physically and politically. As soon as someone mentions an end to the two state solution, it seems that parties, including Saudi Arabia and the Arab League, are burying the coffin, throwing the dirt in, planting grass and putting up a headstone, before anyone has pronounced the patient dead.

Now that calm has somewhat descended upon the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and there appears to be two separate powers dictating policy in the occupied territories, the question should be, how will this affect peace, the humanitarian crisis that already exists, freedom of movement, and the ongoing Israeli abuses of power (abductions, extra-judicial assassinations, settlement expansions, home demolitions, etc…)

The Gaza strip was already in humanitarian crisis before the separation of power. With the ongoing embargo in place, Gaza was being slowly choked to death, and the humanitarian aid situation was in shambles (80% of all Palestinians in Gaza get humanitarian assistance). In addition to the threat of starving to death, lack of medications, limited health care, Palestinians, based on their religious or political affiliations in Gaza, now could also be singled out as the rule of law appears to be extra-judicial. However, Israel, the US, and the international community can not stand to allow malnutrition, starvation, and cholera to plague the tv screens as they tighten their grip on the Gaza Strip. Hamas or no Hamas, plans to cut off water, electricity, food and fuel just are not viable or permissible under international law. As the Israeli Foreign ministry stated, "Now is not the time for Israel to violate any international law or agreements in the Oslo accord." In addition, the opinion states "The ministry believes that any violation of an agreement by Israel would make it legitimate for Hamas not to recognize such deals, and would harm Israel's standing in the international community." (haaretz.com)

So therefore, other than the possibility of ongoing internal violence (which is virtually non-existent at this time), the situation in Gaza can not deteriorate any further, and now with Israel under pressure to abide by international accords, it may get better. However, any further deterioration would give the impression of causing pain and suffering at unacceptable levels, brought on, not by Hamas or Fatah, but by Israel and the US. Neither administration would be able to withstand the international pressure brought on by the pictures of additional hardships in the already devastated Gaza Strip. Even though right-wing Jewish fundamental radicals like Benjamin Netanyahu are calling for cutting all services, even he knows he is only providing lip service and pandering to his political base. (Let's remember, Netanyahu called for Israeli to slaughter and drive out the Palestinians during the Chinese uprising in Tiananmen Square, while the "world's attention was diverted.")

Unfortunately, the west fails to realize that Hamas can only be seen as being in a win-win situation. The embargo already exists and has existed for over a year. They can not take anything more away from them than they already have, and as previously stated, humanitarian assistance to stave off a disaster can not be withheld. The situation will not get better, but it, economically, won't get any worse. If Hamas stays in power in Gaza and continue to provide relatively effective leadership, they will be touted as surviving the onslaught brought on by pro-Israeli and pro-US forces, kept power, kept their beliefs and proven their leadership abilities. If they lose power, they will be viewed as those who stood up to the corruption of the existing government, brought about change (in reality, accountability will actually come from international monitoring of funds to the new government), stood up to the occupation without compromising their beliefs, stood up to Israel, stood up to the US, and at a later time, they will then re-emerge and be successful, if and when there are actually elections in Palestine again. In addition, MSNBC is reporting that the US is formulating a plan on how to effectively limit Hamas. Hamas can only hope that the US efforts to "limit" them are as effective as the US efforts to "limit" Al-Qaeda (but that's a different story).

However, the West Bank is a whole new story. Right now Mahmood Abbas is in a quite a different position than he has ever been in, a position that Yasser Arafat never had the opportunity to enjoy. With Israel, the US, EU and the Arab league slobbering over his new suit, he must feel like he is a kid in a candy shop with an unlimited credit card. In an attempt to "bolster" the new Palestinian government, the purse strings have been thrown open, the wish list is being written up, and like guilty parents trying to make up for beating their child, Ohlmert and Bush are heaping praise and love on Abbas and would look pretty ridiculous if they would now backtrack and not comply with virtually any legitimate, and some not legitimate, requests coming from their new found best friend.

Palestinian demands, based on the Oslo accords and the benchmark's timeline put forward by General Dayton, can no longer be ignored by Israel and the US, as they have now been called on their bluff and they have to put up or shut up. After over a year of courtship, hopes and promises, with Palestinian compliance to their demands, they now have to take a serious look at settlements, roadblocks, abductions, freedom of movement etc… Now we will see if Ohlmert and Bush have the guts and the cards to win this hand, or were they just bluffing, which will only empower Hamas?

While Gaza is unoccupied in Hamas power, the West Bank is occupied and crippled with Israeli interventions, settlements, roadblocks, abuses, beatings, etc… why would a Palestinian want to support the government of Abbas in an occupied West Bank? If Israel and the US have any desire to support the newly formed government of Abbas, they had better start planning on a change of course, a change of rhetoric, a change in action and they had better be implementing it quite rapidly. If they view this as their chance to prove they back the moderates and not the radicals, they had better make it appear that the association is beneficial to the Palestinians, or the people will not support the moderate government. And the Palestinian government of Abbas will need to make sure that the Palestinians in Gaza are taken care of as well, to prove he represents all Palestinians and add legitimacy to the government. How will the US and Israel handle Gaza, without undermining Abbas or empowering Hamas? There will have to be an immediate and significant change in the life of the average Palestinian in the West Bank and Gaza or the chance for any real Palestinian state, any real chance for peace in the occupied territories and any real chance for peace for the US and Israel, will just be another tick mark on the timeline of this conflict.

Abbas has done his homework and seems to be prepared with his wish list in order to be effective. Those demands include ease of access into and out of the occupied territories by Palestinians and internationals, the release of high recognition Palestinian prisoners including Marwan Barghouti, removal of road blocks, removal of checkpoints, release of funds, a road to connect the West Bank to Gaza to allow control of both territories by the new government, freeze of settlement building, freeze to settlement expansion, and numerous other requests to have an immediate effect on the daily life of the average Palestinian. Such demands have to be taken seriously by Israel and the US or risk alienating the moderate Palestinians, and if implemented would signal a new life for a two-state solution and a new way of life for the Palestinian people.